Capital One Bowl pits Penn State against LSU

NCAA Football Betting Lines

01/01/2010 - Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 11th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions are set to tangle with the 13th-ranked LSU Tigers in the Capital One Bowl from Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando.

The Nittany Lions were beaten by USC in last year's Rose Bowl. They had BCS aspirations entering this season, but those hopes were squashed when Ohio State handed the Nittany Lions their second loss of the season in early- November. Penn State has not beaten a ranked opponent all year, and the players have pointed to that as one of the motivating factors in this matchup.

"Well, there's a lot being said about us not being able to win the big game or something like that," Penn State senior quarterback Darryll Clark said at media day. "We've asked for a big game and we've asked for a worthy opponent, a really good opponent and we found one in LSU."

Clark won't find anyone to argue that point as LSU has won its last four bowl games, including the BCS National Championship two seasons ago. The Tigers are returning to the Capital One Bowl for the first time since a last-second loss to Iowa in 2005. However, this year's squad has stumbled through its past four games, with two losses and a pair of narrow victories over Louisiana Tech and Arkansas. Still, the Tigers finished second in the SEC's Western Division and have been ranked in the Top-25 all season, even as high as No. 4 at one point.

"I know our players wanted to play in the best bowl, against a quality opponent in the greatest bowl destination and Orlando was the pick," LSU head coach Les Miles said upon learning of his opponent. "Anytime the Big Ten and the SEC get together it is an exciting game."

LSU and Penn State have faced each other only one other time, with that meeting in the 1974 Orange Bowl going to the Nittany Lions in a 16-9 final.

Behind running backs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, Penn State has no problem playing a smashmouth-style of football. Royster rushed for 1,128 yards this season and averaged 5.9 yards per carry, while the speedster Green provides an effective change of pace when called upon. Then again, having eclipsed 500 total yards on four occasions this season, the Nittany Lions can also hold their own in a shootout. Clark has been Penn State's unquestioned offensive leader over the past two seasons. He enters this matchup as the Big Ten leader in passing efficiency and has thrown a school-record 23 touchdown passes on the year. One of the reasons Clark has felt so comfortable in the pocket is because of left tackle Dennis Landolt. Before the season, Landolt switched from right tackle to left in order to protect Clark's blind side, and the transition was seamless, as Landolt was named a First Team All-Big Ten selection. Landolt and the rest of the offensive line is tied for second in the conference in fewest sacks allowed.

Once again, the Nittany Lions boast one of the nation's elite defensive units, as they rank fourth in the country in scoring defense (11.83 ppg) and eighth in total defense (277.08 ypg). Senior defensive tackle Jared Odrick is a three-time All-American and an absolute force in the trenches. Despite facing constant double teams, Odrick made enough of an impact to garner 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors after notching six sacks, 10 tackles for loss and a blocked field goal. All-American linebacker Navarro Bowman helped the Nittany Lions finish strong and was the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Week for each of the final two weeks. Despite missing nearly three full games to injury early in the season, Bowman still managed to lead the team with 15.5 TFLs, and his per-game average (1.55) ranks second nationally. He is flanked by fellow standout linebacker Sean Lee, who recorded 80 tackles (10.5 TFL) and seven pass break-ups during the regular season.

LSU enters the game with the nation's 108th-ranked offense, averaging a mere 309.7 ypg. But don't be fooled, this unit has a propensity for making plays when needed. Senior wideout Brandon LaFell is a solid red-zone target for sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson. LaFell caught 10 touchdown passes on the season and finished with 705 yards on 52 receptions. His 24 career touchdown grabs are two shy of Dwayne Bowe's school record. Jefferson has had a promising first season as the full-time starter under center. He is completing 62.1 percent of his passes and has thrown 16 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The passing game features mostly short and intermediate routes, as Jefferson averages only 178.5 passing yards per game. All-SEC First Teamer Ciron Black is a road-grader on the offensive line, although the Tigers rank 11th in the SEC in rushing offense (129.6 ypg).

Defensively, LSU is a lot like Penn State. The Tigers rank 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.0 ppg) despite playing the likes of Georgia, Florida and Auburn. All-SEC cornerback Patrick Peterson had 15 passes defended this season, which ranked third in the league. Recognized as one of the nation's elite cover guys, Peterson often makes opposing quarterbacks think twice before throwing his way. He is complemented in the secondary by junior safety Chad Jones, a Second Team All-SEC pick who registered 66 tackles, three interceptions and long punt return touchdown against Mississippi State. Junior linebacker Kelvin Sheppard leads the team with 103 tackles, which ranks fourth in the SEC. Senior linebacker Perry Riley is next in line with 92 tackles.

Under Les Miles, LSU has gone 4-0 in bowl games and will be making its fifth straight bowl appearance, two of those being BCS bowls. Meanwhile, Penn State is playing in its fourth New Year's bowl game in the last five years. Obviously, these two programs have been among the nation's elite over the latter part of the decade, and now they'll finally get to square off against one another. One of the many storylines here will be how well the Nittany Lions respond to a long layoff, as they haven't played since November 21st.

"That's the problem you have when you go to a bowl game nowadays when you're a Big Ten team," Penn State coach Joe Paterno said at media day. "Everybody else has played a couple of games (more recently)."

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

Get free 2009 Super Bowl Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online Super Bowl betting VISA Mastercard

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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